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Post-graduation Outcomes in Former Least Developed Countries: Ex-post Evidence from Country Cases and Policy Implications
Document Summary:
This paper provides an ex-post evaluation of the eight countries that have graduated from the least developed country (LDC) category, assessing the changes in trade, development finance and structural transformation. Using a comparative case-study approach, the analysis reveals that post graduation outcomes are highly heterogeneous and dependent on pre-existing economic structures,
rather than the mechanical withdrawal of LDC-specific international support measures (ISMs). Contrary to prevailing concerns regarding abrupt preference erosion, direct trade shocks have been distinctly contained. This resilience is largely because the exports of graduated countries were dominated by primary commodities with low Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs, services and tourism, or were covered by alternative regional agreements. Similarly, shifts in development finance have manifested as gradual transitions rather than sudden fiscal cliffs. However, the evidence highlights that, while no former LDC has faced an imminent risk of falling back into the category,
graduation does not equate to achieving deep structural transformation or overcoming underlying vulnerabilities. Most graduated countries remain highly exposed to external demand shocks, climate risks and commodity price cycles. The paper concludes that LDC graduation should be understood as a continuous transition requiring sustained productive capacity building and vulnerability sensitive support, rather than a definitive endpoint of economic resilience.
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