Keeping 1.5¡ãC Alive: A safer future for Small Island Developing States
Background
With global warming likely to cross 1.5¡ãC above pre-industrial levels within the next few years, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) must now brace for intensifying climate impacts and a future more uncertain than ever.
As the Ä¢¹½ÊÓÆµEP Limiting Overshoot report shows, outcomes above 1.5¡ãC will cause irreversible harm to people, societies and economies, particularly in SIDS. SIDS face disproportionate and ongoing exposure to sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, ocean warming and acidification, which will continue well beyond the temperature peak. Vulnerability and exposure to hazards will be amplified, with ripple effects across social and economic systems and threats to infrastructure, livelihoods, food and water security, ecosystems, community wellbeing and habitability.
Moreover, climate change is progressively eroding the economic foundations of SIDS and undermining their ambitions for blue, green and digital economic diversification. It threatens key productive sectors and systems, including tourism, fisheries, agriculture, manufacturing and energy, as well as the micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that sustain livelihoods and employment. The impact on debt sustainability is already severe in SIDS that have to borrow heavily to invest in key sectors or rebuild after successive catastrophic cyclone and hurricane seasons. This in turn imposes constraints on long-term sustainable development and the long-term future of island states.
In the face of these challenges, SIDS have reaffirmed the 1.5¡ãC temperature limit, calling for more ambitious climate action, including rapid methane reductions, to limit the duration and severity of any overshoot. SIDS also continue to champion a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels, consistent with the 1.5¡ãC limit, with renewable energy identified as an economic and resilience priority. The ICJ Advisory Opinion was presented as strengthening the legal basis for addressing fossil-fuel production, consumption, exploration, licensing and subsidies. Adaptation and responding to loss and damage will be critical for SIDS to effectively navigate the expected overshoot and lower projected economic impacts. The delivery of the new collective quantified goal on climate finance, much stronger adaptation and loss and damage finance and adequate capitalization of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund will also be essential for a viable future for SIDS.
Moreover, scarce concessional climate and development finance must be deployed strategically to leverage public resources and crowd in private-sector investment. Beyond delivering climate benefits, such finance should strengthen the resilience and
competitiveness of industries, MSMEs and key value chains that underpin SIDS¡¯ aspirations for blue and green economic development, while reducing their dependence on expensive imported fossil fuels. This calls for an integrated investment approach encompassing climate-resilient renewable energy infrastructure, enterprise development, skills and locally anchored value creation.
This event is a call to action to translate the political recognition of the special circumstances of SIDS and commitments to preferential support within multilateral frameworks into stronger mitigation, adaptation, responses to loss and damage, accessible finance and practical implementation. It calls on Parties to fulfil their commitments under the Paris Agreement and support the full and effective implementation of the relevant goals of the Antigua and Barbuda Agenda for SIDS (ABAS). It also calls for an integrated approach that advances climate resilience and economic diversification simultaneously, using accessible and concessional climate finance to support resilient recovery, strengthen productive capacities and build a more sustainable and prosperous future. Join us in advancing clear, urgent and ambitious climate action to safeguard the future of SIDS and the planet, with particular attention to the countries and communities most vulnerable to climate impacts.
Objective
The proposed event seeks to achieve the following objectives:
- To highlight the particular challenges of SIDS, including the disproportionate impact of overshoot on island states.
- To discuss critical and urgent adaptation and loss and damage needs in an overshoot context.
- To drive ambitious and accelerated climate action towards keeping the 1.5¡ãC temperature limit within reach, including overshoot pathways and a just transition.
- To discuss how concessional climate finance can promote productive sectors and key value chains simultaneously, strengthening SIDS collective resilience to increasing climate impacts.
Event Details
- Title: " Keeping 1.5¡ãC Alive"
- Date: Thursday, 12 November
- Time: 9:00-10:00 AM
- Duration: 60 minutes
- Format: Panel Discussion and Interactive Q&A
- Organizers: AOSIS, Climate Analytics, Ä¢¹½ÊÓÆµIDO, Ä¢¹½ÊÓÆµ-OHRLLS
- Target Audience: SIDS Member States, Development Partners, International and Regional Organizations, Policy Makers, and Climate Practitioners
- Venue: SDG Pavilion
Expected Outcomes
- A shared understanding among SIDS and stakeholders of the evolving climate risks to SIDS across the stages of overshoot pathways.
- Strengthened platforms and networks to facilitate planning and implementation of adaptation, responding to loss and damage, a just transition and access to necessary financing for SIDS.
- Recommendations to inform future action and international cooperation.
Programme
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Time |
Session |
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5 Min |
Opening remarks
Moderator: Ms. Tishka Hope Francis, Head of SIDS Unit, Ä¢¹½ÊÓÆµ-OHRLLS
Welcome and framing of NDC implementation as a priority for delivering the Paris Agreement and ABAS.
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Moderator: Ms. Frances Fuller, Head of Programme Strategies, Climate Analytics |
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10 Min |
Scene-setting: Understanding 1.5¡ãC overshoot and its implications for SIDS
Overview of overshoot pathways, associated risks and potentially irreversible impacts, and priorities for adaptation and responding to loss and damage.
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30 Min |
Panel Discussion - Safeguarding SIDS¡¯ future through ambitious climate action
Discussion of SIDS¡¯ priorities for limiting the duration and severity of overshoot, strengthening adaptation and responses to loss and damage, and advancing a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.
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10 Min |
Interactive discussion
Questions and reflections from the audience |
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5 Min |
Closing
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Guiding Questions
- What are the most urgent risks posed by 1.5¡ãC overshoot for SIDS, and how should these shape international climate action?
- What adaptation and loss and damage responses must be prioritized, and what finance and support are needed to implement them?
- How can accelerated mitigation, including methane reductions and a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels, help limit the duration and severity of overshoot?
- How can partner countries and international organizations support SIDS through renewable energy, resilient infrastructure and industrial development consistent with their climate and development priorities?
Contact
OHRLLS Contact:
- Tishka Hope Francis, Head of SIDS Sub-Programme










